Through first-half Dec24, China's prompt LNG imports are impressively weak. Nonetheless, the market's base of downstream natural gas demand continues to grow YOY, adding further depth to the elasticity of China's future bid in the global LNG market for 2025+. #LNG #ongt #China pic.twitter.com/U9UpzBgO1i

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) December 17, 2024

LNG sendout in Spain rips to ~3.7 Bcfd. PVB basis now trading at a premium to TTF in the day-ahead, M+1 and M+2. Strong YOY performance of Spanish renewables had been bearish for PVB basis+LNG imports for most of '24, but this dynamic is clearly changing. #LNG #ongt pic.twitter.com/JIxI0B1pQN

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) December 13, 2024

At over 100mmcfd, the early pipeline noms for 12Dec24 at Plaquemines are roughly sufficient – if sustained – to produce a first cargo. #LNG #ONGT pic.twitter.com/abSWfwuwJp

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) December 12, 2024

So far in Dec24, marginal power prices in the day-ahead market in #Japan are tracking well below the economics of a marginal gas unit generating from a JKM-indexed #LNG cargo. pic.twitter.com/k0EL452cFz

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) December 11, 2024

Some local data commentary addressing the marginal #LNG bid, or current lack thereof, from gas generators in southern #China. In #Guangdong alone, there is ~45 GW of installed gas generation capacity. By comparison, the Texas/#ERCOT market has ~70GW of gas capacity. #ONGT pic.twitter.com/0xXrLEnDU5

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) December 6, 2024

21 Nov24: VG granted permission by FERC to commission and introduce hazardous fluids to Plaquemines Liquefaction Block 1. #LNG #ONGT pic.twitter.com/RG7QGChLWo

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) November 22, 2024

In light of the impending disruption to Russian pipeline flow to OMV/Europe, below is a view of current flows over the border from Ukraine to Slovakia. For those viewing in N. America, that's 1.4bcfd or a volume equivalent to LNG exports from Calcasieu Pass LNG… #LNG #ONGT pic.twitter.com/YbE61Bpwcb

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) November 16, 2024

Shimane 2 and Onagawa 2 progressing towards restarts during winter 24/25, with a third reactor restart in the cards before next winter. #Japan #LNG #NuclearPower https://t.co/5qyZylrSAR pic.twitter.com/HMFJogtJS4

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) November 13, 2024

LNG in tank returning to Sep24 levels on the Continent. #LNG pic.twitter.com/weRv1CwWXe

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) November 11, 2024

LNG imports into India for Oct24 nearly returned to pre-monsoon levels. During the coming year, the Indian market should add new regas capacity, widening the range of local, downstream gas and power market participants bidding for cargoes in the global gas market. #LNG pic.twitter.com/Wy4gTUoH71

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) November 5, 2024

Freeport: early noms for Sunday, 3 November 2024 are effectively back to 100%. #LNG pic.twitter.com/ftIj4MepTo

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) November 3, 2024

In Aug24 and Sep24, Taiwan's power gen from LNG imports was equivalent to its industrial power load by volume. As IP returned to Covid boom levels, less gen from other fuels has tightened Taiwan's power market and increased its vulnerability to fuel supply disruptions. #LNG pic.twitter.com/o3DclW5fy9

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 30, 2024

Hydro generation problems in South America continue to tighten the Atlantic Basin LNG market. For October 2024, the combined LNG imports of Brazil+Colombia+Argentina will likely surpass imports into Spain+Portugal+UK, offering a clear perspective on basis. #LNG #PVB #NBP pic.twitter.com/JeFi9tbfaq

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 29, 2024

In 2024, natural gas supply from pipeline imports + domestic production is doing >2x more than LNG imports in expanding the size of China's domestic gas market. Sep24 was the fourth consecutive month of +75mmcmd YoY supply growth from pipeline imports + dom. production. #LNG pic.twitter.com/hbWRlCpUws

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 27, 2024

France was a top 5 importer of LNG during the first half of October 2024. Nearly 40% of France's imports arrived from Russia during the period. #LNG pic.twitter.com/jWNdvqwyA5

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 21, 2024

Analysis note on the evolving LNG bid of gas generators in India's power market. #LNGhttps://t.co/WiDGU18AoX

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 17, 2024

Japan's Tohoku Electric is deep into its approach pattern to re-start a 0.8GW nuclear power plant – the first re-start since the Fukushima accident in 2011 for Japan's eastern power grid that includes Tokyo – within a matter of weeks. #LNG https://t.co/1V0InM2E6w

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 13, 2024

Hydro problems are not the only Brazil factor tightening the Atlantic Basin LNG market. Strong government spending and transfers are driving power load growth in Brazil's residential and industrial sectors. #LNG pic.twitter.com/wsmTXe2GV7

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 11, 2024

Egypt takes LNG imports and pipeline imports of Israeli gas. If Egypt lost Israeli pipeline imports – which have been targeted in the past – its short-term options to increase imported gas supply would likely be limited to +15mmcmd vs. currently forecast imports. #LNG pic.twitter.com/ydpvXnGdF3

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 6, 2024

Israel has existing infrastructure to re-enter the LNG import market within 2-3 months assuming certain commercial details are sorted. But importantly for the LNG market, it also has the ability to burn oil products in its combined-cycle, natural gas power plants. #LNG

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 6, 2024

Iran is the world's 3rd-largest natural gas producer. Israel is the world's 30th-largest. Iran's gas exports to Azerbaijan and Iraq are *very* small. ~45% of Israeli gas production serves the power sectors of Egypt and Jordan. ~40% serves Israel's own power generation. #LNG

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) October 6, 2024

Moderate China natural gas demand growth in June 2024 at +6% YoY supplied by marginal domestic production growth rather than LNG imports. #LNG pic.twitter.com/GSf3wNJizJ

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) July 25, 2024

India's downstream gas demand hit a record level in May24 at 213mmcmd / 7.5bcfd driven by a capacity-capped bid from the power sector. #LNG supply has met more than half the market's gas demand needs so far in 2024. pic.twitter.com/LY78nYh6HN

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) July 1, 2024

Maintenance-impacted flows of natural gas feedstock into Sabine Pass LNG are stabilizing at 4bcfd. #LNG pic.twitter.com/HOLALosaxv

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) June 25, 2024

Gas imports from Norway to #LNG import markets in NW Europe return to levels seen prior to upstream outage. pic.twitter.com/oztq9vNL50

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) June 10, 2024

With #China's NBS manufacturing PMI signalling contraction for May24 after consecutive months of expansion, here's a look at monthly industrial power load in #Taiwan through end-Apr24. #LNG #JKM #TTF pic.twitter.com/ftIkHbRmfD

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 31, 2024

Above-normal, Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2024, although storm path is not predictable. #LNG #TTF #JKM https://t.co/DLswBgTBCS

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 31, 2024

The -15% YOY decrease in #Egypt's domestic gas production this year will divert #LNG cargoes away from well-supplied NW Europe market this summer. Fuel oil burn in the power sector, persistence in pipeline imports from Israel and FX constraints will cap Egypt's bid. #TTF pic.twitter.com/EOF8kyGzfY

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 22, 2024

Zachry Holdings, Inc. Initiates Voluntary Court-Supervised Chapter 11 Process to Address Financial Challenges Related to Golden Pass LNG Export Terminal Site https://t.co/beZv0pldA8

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 21, 2024

Plaquemines, Golden Pass and Corpus 3 should push US LNG feedstock from ~13bcfd now to ~16bcfd in 2H25. With the approaching US elections, consider that Chinese buyers could account for ~13% of term US LNG offtake by end-25 depending on project commercial in-service dates. #LNG

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 21, 2024

Also for Sum24, spot buying from South Korea's Kogas should be light compared to past summers owing to an estimated +10% higher than average LNG in storage position starting 2Q24, together with higher YoY nuclear generation projected across the summer. #LNG pic.twitter.com/dFzGPXdqW6

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 15, 2024

Outage at Bintulu LNG in Malaysia, roughly same capacity as Sabine Pass LNG, may be benign per Petronas. In the Pacific Basin, multi-week outage at Gorgon LNG in Australia could also be dampened by unexpected Sum24 length from Freeport LNG if restart indeed sustained. #LNG

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 15, 2024

If #China is indeed on the verge of devaluing the renminbi , #LNG imports would be at a competitive disadvantage vs. domestically-priced Chinese gas sources. Any elasticity erosion of the JKTC bid stack would have implications in the Atlantic Basin. #TTF pic.twitter.com/3lpyCfDtXe

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 8, 2024

To the dismay of #JKM bulls, natural gas generation in #India remains modest this year in spite of record levels of power load owing to temperatures and strong economic growth in recent quarters. #LNG pic.twitter.com/tNbAiRmNaM

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) May 2, 2024

With #Argentina staging its latest #LNG tender last week, an update on a.) impact of domestic pipeline debottlenecking and b.) Bolivian imports; two of many factors to determine Argentina's imports and the Atlantic Basin LNG balance #TTF during the remainder of 2024. pic.twitter.com/6vSYytcLTb

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) April 29, 2024

Greater commercial prospects for the development of transhipments via existing regas Turkey or west coast India? Egypt looks to have some seasonally available LNG tank space too. #LNG

— Balance Point Research (@balpointresrch) April 30, 2024