Venezuela: Offshore Trinidad

Following the United States’s escalation of hostilities against Venezuela on 3 January 2026, the supply-side of the Atlantic Basin LNG market could be poised for a tightening in the short-term. Located approximately 600km from the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, and only ~40km from the coast of Venezuela, is the Atlantic LNG liquefaction project in Trinidad & Tobago. During the past two years, the project has exported approximately 9 MTPA (34 mmcmd, or 1.2 Bcfd) of LNG primarily to natural gas and power markets in the Atlantic Basin.

Thus far, the concentration of known US military activity is in the Caracas region, making it less likely that Atlantic LNG’s liquefaction trains are at physical risk. However, the commercial conditions and agreements associated with the LNG tankers exporting cargoes may still be legally implicated, causing a decrease in LNG exports from Trinidad & Tobago.

Forecasting LNG exports by liquefaction project is one of many approaches that distinguish Balance Point Research’s modelling of the global LNG market balance and forecasting of LNG imports into NW Europe. Please reach out to learn more.