Through the first half of July 2025, the global rate of LNG exports remained largely unchanged compared to June 2025 and May 2025. Although the rate of exports from the US LNG complex continued to grind higher during the first half of the month, Middle East exports were notably weaker possibly owing to the logistics challenges created by Typhoon Danas in East Asia.

At the same time as the rate of global LNG exports was stagnant, the rate of global LNG imports in the first half of July 2025 was approximately 20-25 mtpa (~3 bcfd, or ~80 mmcmd) stronger compared to June 2025.

Planned seasonal demand for LNG imports particularly from natural gas and power markets in the Middle East and NE Asia contributed to the month-on-month growth in a largely predictable fashion.

However, the prompt data for July also illustrate some less anticipated dynamics that could impact the remainder of the third quarter. For example, in Japan and South Korea, the combined accumulation of cooling degree days is on pace to set a record for the month of July. Both markets will need to be more reliant on thermal generation to meet peak power load. For the onshore NW Europe market, an unplanned outage on 17 July 2025 related to power supply resulted in a 37 mmcmd (1.3 bcfd, or 10 mtpa) day-on-day decline in the flow of Norwegian pipeline exits.

The tightening impact of the Norway event is likely to be limited. However, the multi-week, cumulative impact of above-average temperatures in NE Asia, in addition to some other prompt fundamental data trends at play in the global LNG market, are definitely worth further consideration for their impact on global balances.

Quantifying the impact of commercially-material changes in prompt fundamental data sources, and assessing the forward impact of these changes on country-level energy balances, is one of many approaches that distinguishes Balance Point Research’s modelling of the global LNG market balance and forecasting of LNG imports into NW Europe. Please reach out to learn more.